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重要提示:《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施

时间: 2019-01-03 00:00 作者:admin 来源:未知 点击:

重要提示:《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》于2017年7月1日起正式实施,通过本微信订阅号发布的观点和信息仅供海通证券的专业投资者参考,完整的投资观点应以海通证券研究所发布的完整报告为准。若您并非海通证券客户中的专业投资者,天长财经娱乐新闻网 为控制投资风险,天长财经娱乐新闻网 请取消订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不便,敬请谅解。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。


Core Conclusions:① The A-shares marketis in the midst of the final stage of the fifth round of bullish-bearish cycle,with the valuation already touching bottom. So we are strategically optimistic:  Comparing across worldwide stock markets, the A-shares market has greater appeal, and as China has been developing equity financing to support industrial upgrading, residential asset allocation will be more focused on the stock market. ② The policy bottom has already appeared, and the market is experiencing short-term rebound.However, it will have to go through a period of bottom endurance under policy positives mixed with earnings downturn. Signals for the arrival of daybreak include decline of broad-spectrum interest rates, credit increase, and reforms rolled out, etc. ③ For the bottom endurance period, hold stocks with high dividend yield and real estate stocks;the 2 or 3-year style rotation has started to favor growth stocks. Investors can make strategic allocation of advanced manufacturing (5G+new energy vehicles) and service consumption (health care + insurance).

 

Daybreak will arrive after goingthrough the dark

 ——2019 A-shares investment strategy

 

Review: The A-shares market is at the bottom of the fifth round of bullish-bearish cycle. The SSE Composite Index has seen a YTD decline of -21.2%; particularly, when it hit 2449 points,the cumulative decline reached -22.9%, and the then decline was the second highest historically. As the earnings of A-shares still maintain a double-digit growth this year, the decline was mainly a reflection of the killing of valuation due to the tight liquidity resulting from deleveraging and the pessimistic expectations from the deterioration of the China-US relations.Looking from the past bearish market's index decline, proportion of individual stocks within different decline ranges, decline duration and the degree oftrading volume contraction, we see the market has entered the final stage of bearishness. A look at the PE, PB, sentiment indicator and value comparison of broadasset classes reveals that the market valuation is at historical bottom level.

 

Looking afar into the future: The A-share market is full of hope. From a worldwide perspective, when the USD weakens, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index would outperform the index of developed market index. Now with the US stocks'valuation standing high in the history while the A shares' valuation at a low level, A shares will be favored in global asset allocation if the US stocksturn from bullish to bearish. With continued opening up, the A-shares market isestimated to see an inflow of RMB400 bn in foreign funds in 2019. In 2015, 62% of Chinese residents' assets were properties and only 5% were stocks, while inthe US, the figures were 30% and 32% respectively in 2017. As China has been developing equity financing to support industrial upgrading, residential asset allocation will be more focused on the stock market. Based on short cycle investment clock, the economy will go from quasi-stagflation toquasi-recession, and in the later period of quasi-recession, the stock market will start good performance.

(责任编辑:北京赛车pk10)

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